Feb. PF Topic Analysis I

Resolved: On balance, the rise of China is beneficial to the interests of the United States.

Another proposition of fact...ugh.  And we have "On balance."  I want to set those aspects aside for now and just focus on framing the topic.

After WWII, the United States was more or less the only developed country standing.  Unless you lived in Pearl Harbor, your town was pretty much able shift from making war supplies to manufacturing goods to be consumed by a population that saw its men return from the war and start families.  Home construction shot up.  Jobs were created.  Our economy was pretty self-sufficient not just because it had the resources but because it HAD to be.  Who else was going to help?  Most of the developed countries in Europe were in shambles.  Japan had been decimated and cowed into submission.  And the United Kingdom was digging itself out of the Blitzkrieg and taking care of its own.

So what was happening in China?  What follows is highly generalized: The Soviet Union kicked Japan out of China.  With the Japanese out, China faced a power struggle between the communists and the faction representing the Republic.  The communists won and China became "The People's Republic of China."  The U.S. most definitely saw the rise of China's communism as a threat but were soon entangled in a different Asian country: Korea.  The ensuing Korean War pulled the U.S.'s attention away from China.

During the 1970's, the government "relaxed" a lot of its policies.  Despite the fact that the Chinese constitution provides for free speech, freedom of the press, etc. the government tightly regulates these rights.  But China recognized that truly communist governments don't usually have thriving economies.  Cuba. North Korea. Venezuela (I know - they're Socialists, but bear with me).  These countries do not have thriving economies.  So China adapted it's brand of communism to partner with free markets.  It's not that China's human rights record is much better than those other countries, but what China did pose was a threat in terms of its rapidly expanding population and the fact that it has nuclear weapons.  As a result, President Nixon opened trade with China as a way of keeping your friends close, but your enemies closer.  The idea was that China would be a viable trading partner the U.S. could benefit from.  Few people, if any, predicted that  China would wind up having the power in the relationship via owning our debt because our own economy would demand high government spending and decrease the value of our dollar.  Currently, China owns about $1.2 trillion of the U.S. debt.

The "rise of China" is a figurative rise.  Their economy, their hegemony, their military and their global influence have all risen from what was a borderline third world environment over the past sixty years.  The debate over whether or not China is a "developing nation" or "developed nation" is not relevant to this debate (this is my opinion).  The "rise" is not what's in question.  The question is whether or not it can benefit us or harm us.